(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

MSRB: On MA exam, what is “Forfeited Option Value” in a Refunding?

Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 06, 2015

“Any measurement you make, without knowledge of its uncertainty, is completely meaningless.”

- Prof. Walter Lewin, MIT Physics 101
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Why this is the Best Refunding Policy Ever

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 10, 2015

"I don't think necessity is the mother of invention. Invention, in my opinion, arises directly from idleness, possibly also from laziness - to save oneself trouble."

- Agatha Christie
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Why Corporates don’t get Munis – It’s Refundings, Stupid

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 14, 2015

Yesterday I spoke at a luncheon (many thanks to MAGNY for a great event) where, during Q&A, a number of people commented on how difficult it is for those who grew up doing corporate bonds to try to cross over into muni-land’s veritable Oz. With all the talking trees and flying monkeys, munis can be pretty disorienting. And I’ve seen it happen many times myself; graveyards are indeed littered with the corpses of corporate types who come to munis and just never get it, both on the buy-side and the banker/sell-side. They show up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed talking about “benchmark this” and “OAS that” but ultimately wind up crouched in a corner mumbling something about 5 and 10 year bullets.

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New Tech for Investors: Refunding Adjusted Yield (RAY)

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 06, 2015

“I have two ways of learning from history: from the past, by reading the elders; and from the future, thanks to my Monte Carlo toy.”

- Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness
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