---
title: (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics (3) | Intuitive Analytics
description: by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics (3)
---

# (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

## [1 thing to know - Bettors, Bookies, and Tax-exempt Debt Managers](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59484/1-thing-to-know-Bettors-Bookies-and-Tax-exempt-Debt-Managers)

 Posted by Peter Orr on May 09, 2013

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-34472159-png/images/betting_pic2.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59484/1-thing-to-know-Bettors-Bookies-and-Tax-exempt-Debt-Managers)

"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people" - [W.C. Fields](http://www.wcfields.com/) 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59484/1-thing-to-know-Bettors-Bookies-and-Tax-exempt-Debt-Managers)

 Topics: [interest rate model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model), [financial forecasting](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-forecasting), [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [Risk Management](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-management), [probability](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/probability)

## [HELP! Can SOMEONE Calculate Refunding PV Savings?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings)

 Posted by Peter Orr on May 02, 2013

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-31827376-png/images/refunding_scenario_table.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings)

"If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is."                               - [John von Neumann](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann)

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings)

 Topics: [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [pv savings](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/pv-savings), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software)

## [VIDEO: Muni Bond Sizing through Linear Optimization](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59409/VIDEO-Muni-Bond-Sizing-through-Linear-Optimization)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 24, 2013

My colleague David de la Nuez (PhD Operations Research) and I build on the linear algebra from our [prior video](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58297/VIDEO-Linear-Algebra-of-Public-Finance-Debt-Sizing) to show how to set up sources and uses and cash flows for a hypothetical three bond deal. Dr. David then solves the linear program using a few simple lines of MATLAB code; doesn't get much juicier than this, don't miss it!   

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59409/VIDEO-Muni-Bond-Sizing-through-Linear-Optimization)

 Topics: [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing), [optimization](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/optimization)

## [VIDEO - Optimization in Muni Bond Sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58327/VIDEO-Optimization-in-Muni-Bond-Sizing)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 15, 2013

"Computer programming is an art, because it applies accumulated knowledge to the world, because it requires skill and ingenuity, and especially because it produces objects of beauty. A programmer who subconsciously views himself as an artist will enjoy what he does and will do it better."  [Donald Knuth](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Knuth)

This video builds on the overwhelming popularity of our [first video](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/Resources/clients/) on using linear algebra to structure bond deals in public finance and lays out a technique for applying a basic optimzation algorithm to simultaneously size and amortize a $100 million municipal bond deal, from 10 years out to 3,000 (just for fun). 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58327/VIDEO-Optimization-in-Muni-Bond-Sizing)

 Topics: [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing), [linear algebra](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/linear-algebra)

## [VIDEO: Linear Algebra of Public Finance Debt Sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58297/VIDEO-Linear-Algebra-of-Public-Finance-Debt-Sizing)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 13, 2013

"If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is."  - John Louis von Neumann 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58297/VIDEO-Linear-Algebra-of-Public-Finance-Debt-Sizing)

 Topics: [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing), [linear algebra](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/linear-algebra)

## [Is the Treasury Really Going Long?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57566/Is-the-Treasury-Really-Going-Long)

 Posted by Win Smith on Feb 14, 2013

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-20113201-png/images/picture1.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57566/Is-the-Treasury-Really-Going-Long)

*We are honored this week to have a guest post from Win Smith, author of the [The Well-Tempered Spreadsheet](http://welltemperedspreadsheet.wordpress.com/).  Win is the president of [Win Analytics LLC](http://www.winanalytics.com/Win_Analytics_LLC/Welcome.html), an independent research and advisory firm.*

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57566/Is-the-Treasury-Really-Going-Long)

 Topics: [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [Treasury Debt](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/treasury-debt), [Weighted Average Life](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/weighted-average-life), [Win Smith](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/win-smith)

## [Public Finance and the 2nd half of the Technology Chessboard](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57533/Public-Finance-and-the-2nd-half-of-the-Technology-Chessboard)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 07, 2013

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-19986563-jpg/images/cell_phone_jail_small-resized-600.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57533/Public-Finance-and-the-2nd-half-of-the-Technology-Chessboard)

“Exponentials can’t go on forever, because they will gobble up everything.”  - Carl Sagan

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57533/Public-Finance-and-the-2nd-half-of-the-Technology-Chessboard)

 Topics: [financial economy](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-economy), [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [Economist](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/economist)

## [Hey, We had a Tax Event!...and a Century of Top Tax Rates](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57145/Hey-We-had-a-Tax-Event-and-a-Century-of-Top-Tax-Rates)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 12, 2013

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-13023329-png/images/top_fmtrs_small.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57145/Hey-We-had-a-Tax-Event-and-a-Century-of-Top-Tax-Rates)

"What is the difference between a taxidermist and a tax collector? The taxidermist takes only your skin."  - Mark Twain

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/57145/Hey-We-had-a-Tax-Event-and-a-Century-of-Top-Tax-Rates)

 Topics: [tax-exempt financing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-exempt-financing), [tax risk](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-risk), [tax policy](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-policy)

## [Sequestration may lead to $255MM in BABs subsidy cuts](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/55559/sequestration-may-lead-to-255mm-in-babs-subsidy-cuts)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Sep 18, 2012

- On of my few shortcomings is that I can't predict the future.  - [Lars Ulrich](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lars_Ulrich)

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/55559/sequestration-may-lead-to-255mm-in-babs-subsidy-cuts)

 Topics: [tax risk](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-risk), [BABs](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/babs), [build america bonds](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/build-america-bonds)

## [VIDEO: Using Excel to Size a Muni Bond Deal](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/55281/VIDEO-Using-Excel-to-Size-a-Muni-Bond-Deal)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 30, 2012

 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/55281/VIDEO-Using-Excel-to-Size-a-Muni-Bond-Deal)

 Topics: [financial model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-model), [Spreadsheets](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/spreadsheets), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing)

[Previous](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/page/2) [All posts](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/all) [Next](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/page/4)

### Subscribe to our Articles

### Browse by Tag **

- [public finance (17)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance)
- [refunding (15)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding)
- [public finance analytics (14)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics)
- [Financial Decisions (13)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions)
- [advance refunding (13)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding)
- [bond option (13)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option)
- [public finance software (12)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software)
- [call option (11)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option)
- [interest rate model (9)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model)
- [municipal finance software (9)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software)
- [SIFMA (8)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifma)
- [Financial Models (7)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-models)
- [debt structuring (7)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring)
- [yield curve modeling (7)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/yield-curve-modeling)
- [decision support (6)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/decision-support)
- [financial analysis (6)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-analysis)
- [financial model (6)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-model)
- [libor (6)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/libor)
- [refunding efficiency (6)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-efficiency)
- [Finance Professionals (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/finance-professionals)
- [bond sizing (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing)
- [financial economy (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-economy)
- [financial forecasting (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-forecasting)
- [municipal swaps (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-swaps)
- [swaps (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/swaps)
- [tax-exempt financing (5)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-exempt-financing)
- [Financial Software (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-software)
- [Financial Technology (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-technology)
- [Wall Street (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/wall-street)
- [callable bonds (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/callable-bonds)
- [refunding adjusted yield (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-adjusted-yield)
- [risk in finance (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-in-finance)
- [tax risk (4)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-risk)
- [Financial Engineers (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-engineers)
- [Intuitive Analytics (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/intuitive-analytics)
- [Risk Management (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-management)
- [SIFMA/LIBOR (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifmalibor)
- [SIFMA/LIBOR ratios (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifmalibor-ratios)
- [Spreadsheets (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/spreadsheets)
- [business process (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/business-process)
- [debt profiling (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-profiling)
- [hedging (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/hedging)
- [monte carlo (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/monte-carlo)
- [press (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/press)
- [pv savings (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/pv-savings)
- [refundings (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refundings)
- [variable rate (3)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/variable-rate)
- [BABs (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/babs)
- [Behavioral Finance (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/behavioral-finance)
- [CFaR (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/cfar)
- [Economist (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/economist)
- [Financial Services (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-services)
- [Fischer Black (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/fischer-black)
- [Investment Banks (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/investment-banks)
- [Risk Metrics (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-metrics)
- [Tax and Accounting Issues (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-and-accounting-issues)
- [build america bonds (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/build-america-bonds)
- [cash flow at risk (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/cash-flow-at-risk)
- [database (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/database)
- [debt service chart (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-service-chart)
- [financial risk (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-risk)
- [linear algebra (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/linear-algebra)
- [muni (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/muni)
- [municipal default (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-default)
- [municipal investor (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-investor)
- [probability (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/probability)
- [public finance marketing (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-marketing)
- [variable rate bonds (2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/variable-rate-bonds)
- [(Un)Calculated Risk (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/uncalculated-risk)
- [Financial Management (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-management)
- [Intellectual Property (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/intellectual-property)
- [Maximum Annual Debt Service (MADS) (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/maximum-annual-debt-service-mads)
- [Organization for Economic and Co-Operation and Dev (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/organization-for-economic-and-co-operation-and-dev)
- [Peter Orr (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/peter-orr)
- [SmartModels Stage III (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/smartmodels-stage-iii)
- [The Program for International Student Assessment ( (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/the-program-for-international-student-assessment)
- [Treasury Debt (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/treasury-debt)
- [VaR (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/var)
- [Weighted Average Life (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/weighted-average-life)
- [Win Smith (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/win-smith)
- [credit (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/credit)
- [cusip (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/cusip)
- [debt service graph (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-service-graph)
- [escrow (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/escrow)
- [future tax rates (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/future-tax-rates)
- [interest rate markets (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-markets)
- [libor swaps (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/libor-swaps)
- [markets (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/markets)
- [monte carlo method (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/monte-carlo-method)
- [monte carlo model (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/monte-carlo-model)
- [municipal data (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-data)
- [negative arbitrage (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/negative-arbitrage)
- [optimization (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/optimization)
- [smartmodels utilities (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/smartmodels-utilities)
- [swaps that swallow town (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/swaps-that-swallow-town)
- [tax policy (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-policy)
- [workflow (1)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/workflow)

[View all +](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/page/3#blog-sidebar-tags)