Welcome to (Un)Calculated Risk

Posted by Peter Orr on Dec 11, 2008

"Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do."

- Peter WeddingGoethe 

I have to admit, I've been wondering about doing this blog thing for quite some time, kind of avoiding it frankly. Not sure why. In my clearly unbiased opinion I've done some pretty interesting stuff. I've surfed, translated Virgil, played semi-pro soccer, grappled with Carlson Gracie (he won, don't think he was trying), high jumped 7 feet (well, 6' 11¼"), solved a stochastic differential equation or two. I even got married last month (see evidence at right – yup, that's me). I've also done some work in finance – been an institutional financial advisor, trader, investment banker, and derivatives marketer.

So, Intuitive Analytics along with doing some financial consulting/advisory work is in the business of making financial models. As you'll see from this blog, I believe that this model-building business is inherently doomed to fail to meet the expectations of so many, many people who deeply want to believe SOMEONE knows what the heck is going on. Unfortunately, I'd argue that most models are nearly fatally flawed from the outset, particularly ones that attempt to capture the dynamics of markets made up of us human types. Anyone that tells you different is trying to sell you something. But what do you think? This is a pretty important/relevant question right now given the likely and impending overhaul of the financial regulatory system.

"You must do the things you cannot do."

- Eleanor Roosevelt

Given my varied and humble background, I'll use this bully pulpit to make some observations which I hope you find occasionally insightful, sometimes controversial, and perhaps even valuable! The subject of (Un)Calculated Risk will primarily be the more scintillating sides of financial economic topics like the future of financial modeling, derivatives, finance professionals, consultative selling, maybe the economy, perhaps rarely and occasionally a little jiu-jitsu…

Enjoy and please let me know your thoughts about this or any post, SmartModels™ applications, or other topics on your mind here or at peterorr(AT)intuitive-analytics.com.