--- title: (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics | public finance analytics | Intuitive Analytics description: public finance analytics | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics --- # (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics ## [Trinity Uses RAY to assess 4s vs 5s - 2nd Gen Refunding Matters!](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77669/Trinity-Uses-RAY-to-assess-4s-vs-5s-2nd-Gen-Refunding-Matters) Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 25, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2630242689-png/images/ref_prob_chart2.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77669/Trinity-Uses-RAY-to-assess-4s-vs-5s-2nd-Gen-Refunding-Matters) "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."  - [Niels Bohr](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niels_Bohr) [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77669/Trinity-Uses-RAY-to-assess-4s-vs-5s-2nd-Gen-Refunding-Matters) Topics: [yield curve modeling](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/yield-curve-modeling), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [refunding adjusted yield](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-adjusted-yield) ## [Why Option Pricing Models are Wrong for Tax-exempt Issuers (Part 2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 06, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2630242499-png/images/the_light.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) In [Part 1](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77580/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-1) (a suggested read if you’re getting to this article first) we proposed 3 questions that determine whether bond option [*pricing* models](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Karasinski_model), in contrast to [real-world option models](http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.incisivemedia.com%2Fjor%2Ffreepdfs%2Fjor_v7n3a2.pdf&ei=VeLUVPmbFsu5ggTv34LgBQ&usg=AFQjCNHoj1OqItaY1Gyt00z2AkHgU1eaIg&sig2=m1uXMW73aR99c0-ZZtc3sQ&bvm=bv.85464276,d.eXY), are appropriate for tax-exempt issuers analyzing their callable bonds: [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) Topics: [interest rate model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model), [yield curve modeling](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/yield-curve-modeling), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option) ## [VIDEO: Muni Bond Sizing through Linear Optimization](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59409/VIDEO-Muni-Bond-Sizing-through-Linear-Optimization) Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 24, 2013 My colleague David de la Nuez (PhD Operations Research) and I build on the linear algebra from our [prior video](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58297/VIDEO-Linear-Algebra-of-Public-Finance-Debt-Sizing) to show how to set up sources and uses and cash flows for a hypothetical three bond deal. Dr. David then solves the linear program using a few simple lines of MATLAB code; doesn't get much juicier than this, don't miss it!    [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59409/VIDEO-Muni-Bond-Sizing-through-Linear-Optimization) Topics: [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing), [optimization](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/optimization) ## [VIDEO - Optimization in Muni Bond Sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58327/VIDEO-Optimization-in-Muni-Bond-Sizing) Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 15, 2013 "Computer programming is an art, because it applies accumulated knowledge to the world, because it requires skill and ingenuity, and especially because it produces objects of beauty. A programmer who subconsciously views himself as an artist will enjoy what he does and will do it better."  [Donald Knuth](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Knuth) This video builds on the overwhelming popularity of our [first video](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/Resources/clients/) on using linear algebra to structure bond deals in public finance and lays out a technique for applying a basic optimzation algorithm to simultaneously size and amortize a $100 million municipal bond deal, from 10 years out to 3,000 (just for fun).  [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/58327/VIDEO-Optimization-in-Muni-Bond-Sizing) Topics: [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing), [linear algebra](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/linear-algebra) ## [The ‘Formula that Killed Wall Street?’ or ‘Know A Bad Rate Model When You See It’](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54011/The-Formula-that-Killed-Wall-Street-or-Know-A-Bad-Rate-Model-When-You-See-It) Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 19, 2012 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15750621-png/images/straight_line_rate_model.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54011/The-Formula-that-Killed-Wall-Street-or-Know-A-Bad-Rate-Model-When-You-See-It) "Copulas are generally an early doodling activity in an area." - Anonymous Street quant [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54011/The-Formula-that-Killed-Wall-Street-or-Know-A-Bad-Rate-Model-When-You-See-It) Topics: [Financial Models](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-models), [interest rate model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model), [financial model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-model), [financial economy](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-economy), [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [financial risk](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-risk), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) ## [VIDEO: Cashflow Risk Statistics for Tax-exempt Debt Management](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/53072/VIDEO-Cashflow-Risk-Statistics-for-Tax-exempt-Debt-Management) Posted by Peter Orr on May 01, 2012 "Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty. Anyone who keeps learning stays young. The greatest thing in life is to keep your mind young."  - [Henry Ford](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ford)  [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/53072/VIDEO-Cashflow-Risk-Statistics-for-Tax-exempt-Debt-Management) Topics: [interest rate model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model), [monte carlo](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/monte-carlo), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [cash flow at risk](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/cash-flow-at-risk), [CFaR](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/cfar) ## [How do you track Public Finance Material Event Disclosures?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36471/How-do-you-track-Public-Finance-Material-Event-Disclosures) Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 01, 2011 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15744139-jpg/images/istock_magnifier_on_financials_small1.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36471/How-do-you-track-Public-Finance-Material-Event-Disclosures)   [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36471/How-do-you-track-Public-Finance-Material-Event-Disclosures) Topics: [Financial Technology](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-technology), [database](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/database), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) ## [Top Ten Reasons Why Public Finance Data Initiatives Fail](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36217/Top-Ten-Reasons-Why-Public-Finance-Data-Initiatives-Fail) Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 22, 2011 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15751331-png/images/ten_reasons_why_pubfin_data_fails_small.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36217/Top-Ten-Reasons-Why-Public-Finance-Data-Initiatives-Fail)   [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/36217/Top-Ten-Reasons-Why-Public-Finance-Data-Initiatives-Fail) Topics: [Financial Technology](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-technology), [debt profiling](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-profiling), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) ## [Biggest Benefit to Superior Public Finance Analytics? The Questions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/32556/Biggest-Benefit-to-Superior-Public-Finance-Analytics-The-Questions) Posted by Peter Orr on Nov 23, 2010 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15746261-jpg/images/quest_mark_small.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/32556/Biggest-Benefit-to-Superior-Public-Finance-Analytics-The-Questions) When I first started IA a number of years back, I was on the phone late with someone from online banking support trying to resolve an issue with our business account. At one point he asked me to look for an item on the web page which simply wasn't there. He followed up with, "Have you scrolled all the way down to see the entire page?"  Now as I mentioned, this  was late and at the end of a 27 hour day in the early dawn of Intuitive Analytics so this question was not graciously received. My gruff response was approximately, "Now I'm sure asking that is perfectly appropriate and reasonable for many people you find yourself speaking with throughout the day, but for this conversation to be productive, you're going to need to increase the quality of your questions." [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/32556/Biggest-Benefit-to-Superior-Public-Finance-Analytics-The-Questions) Topics: [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) ## [How Many Refunding Opportunities are You Missing?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/28968/How-Many-Refunding-Opportunities-are-You-Missing) Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 19, 2010 With rates this low, how much time and money are you spending running and re-running refunding numbers for your issuer clients and targets? This is an expensive, labor intensive, manual task that is far more accurately, predictably, and cost-effectively done across the department through use of a [robust database solution](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/products/Library/) that emails results to the banker, advisor, or issuer. If you have no idea how much time and money is spent performing these tasks, they likely are costing you way too much. After all, what gets measured gets managed…  [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/28968/How-Many-Refunding-Opportunities-are-You-Missing) Topics: [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) [All posts](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/all) [Next](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics/page/2) ### Subscribe to our Articles ### Browse by Tag ** - [public finance (17)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance) - [refunding (15)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding) - [public finance analytics (14)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics) - [Financial Decisions (13)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions) - 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