(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Munis Plus Bad Modelling Yields Option-Adjusted Nonsense

MSRB: On MA exam, what is “Forfeited Option Value” in a Refunding?

3 Things that Drive “Advance Refunding Option” Value

Press (and Fed): Market-based expectations wrong for issuers and investors

New Headline: Muni Issuers Make Outstanding Speculators

Why this is the Best Refunding Policy Ever

Why Corporates don’t get Munis – It’s Refundings, Stupid

New Tech for Investors: Refunding Adjusted Yield (RAY)

Trinity Uses RAY to assess 4s vs 5s - 2nd Gen Refunding Matters!

Why Option Pricing Models are Wrong for Tax-exempt Issuers (Part 2)

Why Option Pricing Models are Wrong for Tax-exempt Issuers (Part 1)

The Right Analysis for Refundings – MSRB, Take Note

Refunding Adjusted Yield (RAY) Shines Light on Issuer Financing Cost

Hull-White add Weight to New Interest Rate Modeling Research

Refundings Show Finance Profs How to Colossally Screw-Up Finance

New Research: Advance Refunding Always Destroys Value - Use a Swap

2013 Discovery - The Missing Link in Interest Rate Modeling!

Muni Call Options: Information vs Price

50 Years of UST Yields - How Well do Forwards Predict?

Slogan of the Month Winner: Bloomberg! "Listening to Our Clients"

1 thing to know - Bettors, Bookies, and Tax-exempt Debt Managers

HELP! Can SOMEONE Calculate Refunding PV Savings?

VIDEO: Muni Bond Sizing through Linear Optimization

VIDEO - Optimization in Muni Bond Sizing

VIDEO: Linear Algebra of Public Finance Debt Sizing

Is the Treasury Really Going Long?

Public Finance and the 2nd half of the Technology Chessboard

Hey, We had a Tax Event!...and a Century of Top Tax Rates

Sequestration may lead to $255MM in BABs subsidy cuts

VIDEO: Using Excel to Size a Muni Bond Deal

Municipal Defaults - 36x Higher Than You Think (and other myths)

The RIGHT refunding discount rates to use? Wrong question...

The ‘Formula that Killed Wall Street?’ or ‘Know A Bad Rate Model When You See It’

VIDEO: Cashflow Risk Statistics for Tax-exempt Debt Management

VIDEO: SIFMA and LIBOR Interest Rate Model for Public Finance

VIDEO: Analyzing Fixed vs Floating using CFaR and Product Efficiency

Refunding PV Savings - Arbitrage Yield or Zero Rates?

Minimize Refunding Negative Arbitrage or Maximize Savings?

Changing Times: Our 2012 New Year's Resolution to Public Finance

How much Apple is in your Public Finance?

93 Years of Top Tax Rates: What it means for Public Finance

A Quick Guide to CUSIPs in Public Finance

Why Forward Rates Should NOT be Used in Forecasting

50 Years of USTNote History - Is Default the Next Event on the Chart?

Good News for Muni Issuers: Rate and Ratio Correlations Still Work!

5 Risks to Capture Using Monte Carlo to Analyze Tax-Exempt VRDBs

5 Things a True “Muni Expert” Would Say About Municipal Defaults

How do you track Public Finance Material Event Disclosures?

Top Ten Reasons Why Public Finance Data Initiatives Fail

NEWSFLASH: SIFMA/LIBOR Shows Tax Rates Trend to 0%!

Biggest Benefit to Superior Public Finance Analytics? The Questions

Basel III and the Future of Bank Supported VRDBs in Public Finance

4 Ways to Make Killer Public Finance Debt Service Charts, Part 2

4 Ways to Make Killer Public Finance Debt Service Charts, Part 1

Issuers BEWARE: Tax risk is NOT in LIBOR Swaps!

Want to Get Hired by More Public Finance Issuers? Know Your Position

How Many Refunding Opportunities are You Missing?

The Flaw of Averages, Muni Style: SIFMA/LIBOR and Rates

Financial Decision Making: 3 Questions Every CFO Must Ask and Answer

Financial Software: Top 10 Reasons Why a Database Kicks a Spreadsheet’s Butt

Darwin Predicts Rise of Small Business!

Financial Software: The answer to “Build or Buy?”

The NYTimes and the 0.14% that Swallowed Your Town, pt3 (final)

NYT and the 0.14% that Swallowed Your Town, pt 2

My beef with the NYTimes and Morgenson on Municipal Swaps, pt1

Too Much Raw Data in Your Probabilistic Analysis? It’s Likely

Monte Carlo: Model, Method, or Nice Place to Visit?

Top 5 Things Your Public Finance Software Must (now) Do

Refunding Efficiency: Not the Holy Grail of Decision Criteria

NYT and Press: Get Your Facts Straight About Municipal Swaps

The Big BAD Mistake about BABs

Green shoot economy…infested with parasites?

Are munis over-hedged with swaps? Pt3

Are munis over-hedged with swaps? pt2

Are munis over-hedged with swaps? pt1

Forecasting in the “Fog”

The REAL Challenge for Investment Banks, Part II…

The REAL Challenge for Investment Banks: Part 1

VaR and the Meltdown

Behavioral Finance, Spreadsheets, and Bad decisions

Financial Software: The Good, the Bad, the Ineffective

Finance Professionals: Black Box or Glass Box?

My Disagreement with Fischer Black

Are Financial Models Worthless? Risk and Uncertainty…

Welcome to (Un)Calculated Risk

All posts