(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

MSRB: On MA exam, what is “Forfeited Option Value” in a Refunding?

Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 06, 2015

“Any measurement you make, without knowledge of its uncertainty, is completely meaningless.”

- Prof. Walter Lewin, MIT Physics 101
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3 Things that Drive “Advance Refunding Option” Value

Posted by Peter Orr on May 12, 2015

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

- George Box
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Why Corporates don’t get Munis – It’s Refundings, Stupid

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 14, 2015

Yesterday I spoke at a luncheon (many thanks to MAGNY for a great event) where, during Q&A, a number of people commented on how difficult it is for those who grew up doing corporate bonds to try to cross over into muni-land’s veritable Oz. With all the talking trees and flying monkeys, munis can be pretty disorienting. And I’ve seen it happen many times myself; graveyards are indeed littered with the corpses of corporate types who come to munis and just never get it, both on the buy-side and the banker/sell-side. They show up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed talking about “benchmark this” and “OAS that” but ultimately wind up crouched in a corner mumbling something about 5 and 10 year bullets.

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