--- title: (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics | refunding | Intuitive Analytics description: refunding | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics --- # (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics ## [MSRB: On MA exam, what is “Forfeited Option Value” in a Refunding?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/msrb-on-ma-exam-what-is-forfeited-option-value-in-a-refunding) Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 06, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hubfs/msrb_question.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/msrb-on-ma-exam-what-is-forfeited-option-value-in-a-refunding) > “Any measurement you make, without knowledge of its uncertainty, is completely meaningless.” > > - Prof. Walter Lewin, MIT Physics 101 [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/msrb-on-ma-exam-what-is-forfeited-option-value-in-a-refunding) Topics: [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option), [callable bonds](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/callable-bonds), [refundings](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refundings) ## [Why this is the Best Refunding Policy Ever](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/why-this-is-the-best-refunding-policy-ever) Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 10, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hubfs/Refunding_Probs_-_Large_issuer.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/why-this-is-the-best-refunding-policy-ever) > "I don't think necessity is the mother of invention. Invention, in my opinion, arises directly from idleness, possibly also from laziness - to save oneself trouble." > > - Agatha Christie [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/why-this-is-the-best-refunding-policy-ever) Topics: [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [refunding efficiency](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-efficiency), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option), [callable bonds](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/callable-bonds) ## [Why Corporates don’t get Munis – It’s Refundings, Stupid](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77767/Why-Corporates-don-t-get-Munis-It-s-Refundings-Stupid) Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 14, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2630243144-png/images/yield_curves_in_refunding_small.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77767/Why-Corporates-don-t-get-Munis-It-s-Refundings-Stupid) Yesterday I spoke at a luncheon (many thanks to [MAGNY](http://www.magny.org/) for a great event) where, during Q&A, a number of people commented on how difficult it is for those who grew up doing corporate bonds to try to cross over into muni-land’s veritable Oz. With all the [talking trees](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9bbxNV7QY8) and [flying monkeys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESI19h4wDo), munis *can* be pretty disorienting. And I’ve seen it happen many times myself; graveyards are indeed littered with the corpses of corporate types who come to munis and just never get it, both on the buy-side and the banker/sell-side. They show up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed talking about “benchmark this” and “[OAS](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option-adjusted_spread) that” but ultimately wind up crouched in a corner mumbling something about 5 and 10 year bullets. [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77767/Why-Corporates-don-t-get-Munis-It-s-Refundings-Stupid) Topics: [yield curve modeling](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/yield-curve-modeling), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option), [refunding adjusted yield](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-adjusted-yield), [callable bonds](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/callable-bonds), [municipal investor](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-investor), [refundings](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refundings) ## [Why Option Pricing Models are Wrong for Tax-exempt Issuers (Part 2)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 06, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2630242499-png/images/the_light.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) In [Part 1](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77580/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-1) (a suggested read if you’re getting to this article first) we proposed 3 questions that determine whether bond option [*pricing* models](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Karasinski_model), in contrast to [real-world option models](http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.incisivemedia.com%2Fjor%2Ffreepdfs%2Fjor_v7n3a2.pdf&ei=VeLUVPmbFsu5ggTv34LgBQ&usg=AFQjCNHoj1OqItaY1Gyt00z2AkHgU1eaIg&sig2=m1uXMW73aR99c0-ZZtc3sQ&bvm=bv.85464276,d.eXY), are appropriate for tax-exempt issuers analyzing their callable bonds: [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77595/Why-Option-Pricing-Models-are-Wrong-for-Tax-exempt-Issuers-Part-2) Topics: [interest rate model](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/interest-rate-model), [yield curve modeling](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/yield-curve-modeling), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option) ## [The Right Analysis for Refundings – MSRB, Take Note](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77536/The-Right-Analysis-for-Refundings-MSRB-Take-Note) Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 29, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2610809046-png/images/biz_peep_at_whiteboard.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77536/The-Right-Analysis-for-Refundings-MSRB-Take-Note) We see a lot of confusion in public finance as to how to analyze refundings. Unfortunately I think much of it stems from people *outside* of public finance coming in without a complete understanding of the environment in which a tax-exempt issuer operates i.e. the muni market. These interlopers get excited when they see option specifications in an official statement, then cry out, “We’ve seen these before. We have fantastic models used everywhere else, they must apply here too!” Unfortunately the foundational assumptions underpinning these models do not exist in the muni market leading this statement to be bunk (technical term my father used to use…). In fact those elegant bond options models do not apply in the muni flea market. [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77536/The-Right-Analysis-for-Refundings-MSRB-Take-Note) Topics: [Financial Engineers](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-engineers), [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [refunding efficiency](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-efficiency), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option) ## [Refunding Adjusted Yield (RAY) Shines Light on Issuer Financing Cost](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77516/Refunding-Adjusted-Yield-RAY-Shines-Light-on-Issuer-Financing-Cost) Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 23, 2015 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-2610808806-png/images/ray.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77516/Refunding-Adjusted-Yield-RAY-Shines-Light-on-Issuer-Financing-Cost) It’s 2015. [Watson vanquished humans](http://www.cnbc.com/id/102069981) in Jeopardy 4 years ago and is now rapidly moving towards [replacing as many oncologists](http://www.mskcc.org/blog/msk-trains-ibm-watson-help-doctors-make-better-treatment-choices) as possible. Google is just one company [running driverless cars and trucks](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20141013-convoys-of-huge-zombie-trucks) around everywhere. Facebook is trying to [monetize every eye twitch you make](http://www.theverge.com/2014/7/7/5878069/why-facebook-is-beating-the-fbi-at-facial-recognition) looking at a web page. Let’s check in on innovation in public finance: [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/77516/Refunding-Adjusted-Yield-RAY-Shines-Light-on-Issuer-Financing-Cost) Topics: [Financial Software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-software), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [tax-exempt financing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-exempt-financing), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option), [bond sizing](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-sizing) ## [Refundings Show Finance Profs How to Colossally Screw-Up Finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/71485/Refundings-Show-Finance-Profs-How-to-Colossally-Screw-Up-Finance) Posted by Peter Orr on Oct 09, 2013 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-341979760-png/images/mistake_here_it_is-resized-600.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/71485/Refundings-Show-Finance-Profs-How-to-Colossally-Screw-Up-Finance) "To confuse the model with the world is to embrace a future disaster driven by the belief that humans obey mathematical rules."  - *[The Financial Modeler's Manifesto](http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/eman/index.cfm/2009/1/8/The-Financial-Modelers-Manifesto)*, Emanual Derman and Paul Wilmott [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/71485/Refundings-Show-Finance-Profs-How-to-Colossally-Screw-Up-Finance) Topics: [Financial Models](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-models), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [refunding efficiency](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-efficiency), [hedging](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/hedging) ## [New Research: Advance Refunding Always Destroys Value - Use a Swap](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/69562/New-Research-Advance-Refunding-Always-Destroys-Value-Use-a-Swap) Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 08, 2013 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-249103466-jpg/images/money_question_2.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/69562/New-Research-Advance-Refunding-Always-Destroys-Value-Use-a-Swap) “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance” - Confucius [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/69562/New-Research-Advance-Refunding-Always-Destroys-Value-Use-a-Swap) Topics: [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [refunding efficiency](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding-efficiency), [call option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/call-option), [bond option](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/bond-option) ## [HELP! Can SOMEONE Calculate Refunding PV Savings?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings) Posted by Peter Orr on May 02, 2013 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-31827376-png/images/refunding_scenario_table.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings) "If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is."                               - [John von Neumann](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann) [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/59515/HELP-Can-SOMEONE-Calculate-Refunding-PV-Savings) Topics: [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [pv savings](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/pv-savings), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software) ## [The RIGHT refunding discount rates to use? Wrong question...](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54944/The-RIGHT-refunding-discount-rates-to-use-Wrong-question) Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 14, 2012 [![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15746261-jpg/images/quest_mark_small.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54944/The-RIGHT-refunding-discount-rates-to-use-Wrong-question)  I finally know what distinguishes man from the other beasts: financial worries. - [Jules Renard](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jules_Renard) [Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/54944/The-RIGHT-refunding-discount-rates-to-use-Wrong-question) Topics: [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding), [advance refunding](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/advance-refunding), [decision support](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/decision-support), [pv savings](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/pv-savings) [All posts](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/all) [Next](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/refunding/page/2) ### Subscribe to our Articles ### Browse by Tag ** - 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