(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Press (and Fed): Market-based expectations wrong for issuers and investors

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 25, 2015

We’ve written a number of articles talking about financial forecasting being a necessary evil, implied forward yields being miserable predictors of realized yields, and recently the inappropriate use of option pricing models (requiring market-based inputs) when doing refunding analysis. We even wrote a paper on it as we see a lot of misunderstanding by pubfin practitioners on this point.

Read More

Muni Call Options: Information vs Price

Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 05, 2013

Today on (Un)Calculated Risk we welcome Shaun Rai, a Managing Director at Montague DeRose and Associates, as our guest contributor (and another outstanding IA client!). 

Read More

50 Years of UST Yields - How Well do Forwards Predict?

Posted by Peter Orr on May 17, 2013

"Despite its role in...finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received virtually no empirical support." - Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Read More

1 thing to know - Bettors, Bookies, and Tax-exempt Debt Managers

Posted by Peter Orr on May 09, 2013

"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people" - W.C. Fields 

Read More

Why Forward Rates Should NOT be Used in Forecasting

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 12, 2011

“It is exceedingly difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.”

Read More