(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Munis Plus Bad Modelling Yields Option-Adjusted Nonsense

Posted by Peter Orr on Dec 11, 2015

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”   - Albert E

Read More

Why Corporates don’t get Munis – It’s Refundings, Stupid

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 14, 2015

Yesterday I spoke at a luncheon (many thanks to MAGNY for a great event) where, during Q&A, a number of people commented on how difficult it is for those who grew up doing corporate bonds to try to cross over into muni-land’s veritable Oz. With all the talking trees and flying monkeys, munis can be pretty disorienting. And I’ve seen it happen many times myself; graveyards are indeed littered with the corpses of corporate types who come to munis and just never get it, both on the buy-side and the banker/sell-side. They show up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed talking about “benchmark this” and “OAS that” but ultimately wind up crouched in a corner mumbling something about 5 and 10 year bullets.

Read More

New Tech for Investors: Refunding Adjusted Yield (RAY)

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 06, 2015

“I have two ways of learning from history: from the past, by reading the elders; and from the future, thanks to my Monte Carlo toy.”

- Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness
Read More

Trinity Uses RAY to assess 4s vs 5s - 2nd Gen Refunding Matters!

Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 25, 2015

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."  - Niels Bohr

Read More