(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Muni Call Options: Information vs Price

Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 05, 2013

Today on (Un)Calculated Risk we welcome Shaun Rai, a Managing Director at Montague DeRose and Associates, as our guest contributor (and another outstanding IA client!). 

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Financial Decision Making: 3 Questions Every CFO Must Ask and Answer

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 20, 2010

Credit markets are certainly not “normal” (in any sense of the
word) but at least they’re stable enough for issuers to make some decisions. That said, keeping in mind the answers to three deceptively simple yet vitally important questions will always serve CFOs, governing boards, finance committees, and other financial decision makers very well.

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The Big BAD Mistake about BABs

Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 19, 2010

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." 

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VaR and the Meltdown

Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 05, 2009

If you didn't catch it, the NYT magazine this weekend had a cover story on risk which posed the question, was management or specifically risk management more responsible for the current financial mess in which we now sit? Not unexpectedly, Mr. Black Swan himself got a good dose of coverage railing against the utter folly of VaR and seemingly anyone who attempts to quantify anything about risk in finance. The other corner is represented by the leadership at RiskMetrics, Sunguard, etc weighing in with the "calculating risk has benefits" position, given it (VaR) provides relevant and useful information the majority of the time. Taleb's point is the "majority of the time" doesn't matter much after insolvency.

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