(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Trinity Uses RAY to assess 4s vs 5s - 2nd Gen Refunding Matters!

Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 25, 2015

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."  - Niels Bohr

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VIDEO - Optimization in Muni Bond Sizing

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 15, 2013

"Computer programming is an art, because it applies accumulated knowledge to the world, because it requires skill and ingenuity, and especially because it produces objects of beauty. A programmer who subconsciously views himself as an artist will enjoy what he does and will do it better."  Donald Knuth

This video builds on the overwhelming popularity of our first video on using linear algebra to structure bond deals in public finance and lays out a technique for applying a basic optimzation algorithm to simultaneously size and amortize a $100 million municipal bond deal, from 10 years out to 3,000 (just for fun). 

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VIDEO: Linear Algebra of Public Finance Debt Sizing

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 13, 2013

"If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is."  - John Louis von Neumann 

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Is the Treasury Really Going Long?

Posted by Win Smith on Feb 14, 2013

We are honored this week to have a guest post from Win Smith, author of the The Well-Tempered Spreadsheet.  Win is the president of Win Analytics LLC, an independent research and advisory firm.

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VIDEO: Using Excel to Size a Muni Bond Deal

Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 30, 2012


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4 Ways to Make Killer Public Finance Debt Service Charts, Part 1

Posted by David De la Nuez on Oct 25, 2010

Debt service charts in public finance are as ubiquitous as business cards at a shortlist presentation and date back to before Lotus 123 offered WYSIWYG. Unfortunately, they usually don’t look much different despite just a few improvements in technology over the last 20+ years. But what can you do to make a principal and interest graph sizzle? The answer is *a bunch of stuff* particularly with Excel 2007's new graphics engine. One rule of thumb (and pet peeve of ours): do not ever make your chart in more dimensions than the data.  Debt service is expressed as amount vs time – two dimensions, not three. Three dimensional bar charts, pie charts, etc. just distort the data you're trying to accurately convey. For more details on this, and definitely if you're not already familiar, read from the master of data visualization, Professor Edward Tufte. But back to debt service…

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The Big BAD Mistake about BABs

Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 19, 2010

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." 

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