(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Press (and Fed): Market-based expectations wrong for issuers and investors

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 25, 2015

We’ve written a number of articles talking about financial forecasting being a necessary evil, implied forward yields being miserable predictors of realized yields, and recently the inappropriate use of option pricing models (requiring market-based inputs) when doing refunding analysis. We even wrote a paper on it as we see a lot of misunderstanding by pubfin practitioners on this point.

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The NYTimes and the 0.14% that Swallowed Your Town, pt3 (final)

Posted by Peter Orr on May 31, 2010

In the 2nd post on the topic, Dan Cooreman of the Sunday Business section indicated that the problems Gretchen Morgenson spoke to in her article,The Swaps That Swallowed Your Town, were in fact related to the variable rate instruments.  He seemed to agree with exactly my point but ultimately, my final words (below) to the Times editors on the topic have gone unanswered.

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NYT and Press: Get Your Facts Straight About Municipal Swaps

Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 10, 2010

"Knit Cap Creates Huge Hangover" is Not a Good Headline  

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