(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

The Flaw of Averages, Muni Style: SIFMA/LIBOR and Rates

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 28, 2010

Here’s a quick quiz. If over the last 10 years 1M LIBOR reset weekly averaged 2.814%, and the average of SIFMA / 1M LIBOR was 82.0%, what was the SIFMA average over the same time period (all rates unadjusted for day counts, holidays etc.)?

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Financial Decision Making: 3 Questions Every CFO Must Ask and Answer

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 20, 2010

Credit markets are certainly not “normal” (in any sense of the
word) but at least they’re stable enough for issuers to make some decisions. That said, keeping in mind the answers to three deceptively simple yet vitally important questions will always serve CFOs, governing boards, finance committees, and other financial decision makers very well.

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Financial Software: Top 10 Reasons Why a Database Kicks a Spreadsheet’s Butt

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 16, 2010

I’ve always believed there are actually three certainties in life (in contrast to the far less archetypal two): death, taxes, and finance people’ love of spreadsheets.  Spreadsheets are excellent for doing certain types of work given their flexibility. Though frankly, these “electronic chalkboards” as their inventors called them are simply not the right medium for others. For instance, heavy duty simulation based number crunching and optimization shouldn’t be done on a chalkboard, electronic or otherwise. The memory management and numerics simply aren’t suitably industrial strength for big jobs like that. As a data store the spreadsheet also has drawbacks.  Sure it’s flexible and easy to add new bits, but that same flexibility is a problem when it comes to compatibility and consistency, virtues in and of themselves.

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Darwin Predicts Rise of Small Business!

Posted by Peter Orr on Jul 14, 2010

I know evolutionary biology comparisons to business are a bit
tired at this point, but having just checked off an item on my personal bucket list (diving in Galapagos!) I can’t resist reciting a few quotes from my friend Chuck Darwin. After seeing some of his famous finches firsthand one day and dealing with a balance sheet market risk analysis the next, I can’t help myself:

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