(Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

Press (and Fed): Market-based expectations wrong for issuers and investors

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 25, 2015

We’ve written a number of articles talking about financial forecasting being a necessary evil, implied forward yields being miserable predictors of realized yields, and recently the inappropriate use of option pricing models (requiring market-based inputs) when doing refunding analysis. We even wrote a paper on it as we see a lot of misunderstanding by pubfin practitioners on this point.

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New Headline: Muni Issuers Make Outstanding Speculators

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 18, 2015

The path is smooth that leadeth on to danger.

– William Shakespeare
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Why this is the Best Refunding Policy Ever

Posted by Peter Orr on Apr 10, 2015

"I don't think necessity is the mother of invention. Invention, in my opinion, arises directly from idleness, possibly also from laziness - to save oneself trouble."

- Agatha Christie
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