---
title: (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics (8) | Intuitive Analytics
description: by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics (8)
---

# (Un)Calculated Risk | by Peter Orr of Intuitive Analytics

## [The Big BAD Mistake about BABs](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/15046/The-Big-BAD-Mistake-about-BABs)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 19, 2010

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15751504-png/images/testbabs2.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/15046/The-Big-BAD-Mistake-about-BABs)

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/15046/The-Big-BAD-Mistake-about-BABs)

 Topics: [risk in finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-in-finance), [public finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance), [public finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-software), [public finance analytics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/public-finance-analytics), [municipal finance software](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/municipal-finance-software), [debt structuring](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/debt-structuring), [BABs](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/babs), [build america bonds](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/build-america-bonds), [muni](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/muni)

## [Green shoot economy…infested with parasites?](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13643/Green-shoot-economy-infested-with-parasites)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 15, 2010

Ye can lead a man up to the university, but you can't make him think.

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13643/Green-shoot-economy-infested-with-parasites)

 Topics: [The Program for International Student Assessment (](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/the-program-for-international-student-assessment), [Organization for Economic and Co-Operation and Dev](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/organization-for-economic-and-co-operation-and-dev)

## [Are munis over-hedged with swaps? Pt3](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13642/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-Pt3)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Oct 25, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15737649-png/images/annual_cashflow_benefit_from_58_percent_libor_plus_52bps_vs_68_percent_libor_swap.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13642/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-Pt3)

"It is better to understand a little, than to misunderstand a lot."

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13642/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-Pt3)

 Topics: [SIFMA](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifma), [swaps](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/swaps), [libor](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/libor), [muni](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/muni), [hedging](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/hedging)

## [Are munis over-hedged with swaps? pt2](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13639/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt2)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Aug 09, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15744319-png/images/libor_sifma_graph.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13639/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt2)

"Our lives improve only when we take chances - and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves."

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13639/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt2)

 Topics: [Spreadsheets](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/spreadsheets), [SIFMA](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifma), [Tax and Accounting Issues](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-and-accounting-issues), [libor](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/libor)

## [Are munis over-hedged with swaps? pt1](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13633/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt1)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Jun 25, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15737705-png/images/are_munis_over-hedged_with_swaps.png) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13633/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt1)

"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work."

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13633/Are-munis-over-hedged-with-swaps-pt1)

 Topics: [Risk Management](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-management), [SIFMA](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/sifma), [Tax and Accounting Issues](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/tax-and-accounting-issues), [libor](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/libor)

## [Forecasting in the “Fog”](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13630/Forecasting-in-the-Fog)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Mar 12, 2009

"…companies are finding their standard budgeting and forecasting of little use. The usual trick of plugging figures from operating units into spreadsheets appeals to number-crunchers, but can often generate misleading targets, especially when conditions change fast." 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13630/Forecasting-in-the-Fog)

 Topics: [markets](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/markets), [Economist](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/economist)

## [The REAL Challenge for Investment Banks, Part II…](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13629/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-II)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 16, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15751081-jpg/images/super_coin.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13629/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-II)

"Finally, the business model of the investment banks is almost certainly going to change. Over the last 20 years, investment banking went from primarily an advisory business to being mostly a business where firms traded their own accounts – so-called proprietary trading."

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13629/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-II)

 Topics: [Finance Professionals](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/finance-professionals), [Wall Street](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/wall-street), [Investment Banks](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/investment-banks)

## [The REAL Challenge for Investment Banks: Part 1](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13625/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-1)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Feb 08, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15753692-jpg/images/wall-street-blu-ray-michael-douglas.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13625/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-1)

"Number 10: Never give up on an idea simply because it is bad and doesn't work. Cling to it even when it is hopeless. Anyone can cut and run, but it takes a very special person to stay with something that is truly stupid and harmful…" 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13625/The-REAL-Challenge-for-Investment-Banks-Part-1)

 Topics: [Finance Professionals](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/finance-professionals), [Wall Street](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/wall-street), [Investment Banks](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/investment-banks)

## [VaR and the Meltdown](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13578/VaR-and-the-Meltdown)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 05, 2009

[![](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/hs-fs/file-15751620-jpg/images/the_risk.jpg) ](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13578/VaR-and-the-Meltdown)

<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?ref=magazine>If you didn't catch it, the NYT magazine this weekend had a [cover story on risk](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=risk&st=cse) which posed the question, was management or specifically *risk* management more responsible for the current financial mess in which we now sit? Not unexpectedly, [Mr. Black Swan](http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/) himself got a good dose of coverage railing against the utter folly of VaR and seemingly anyone who attempts to quantify anything about risk in finance. The other corner is represented by the leadership at RiskMetrics, Sunguard, etc weighing in with the "calculating risk has benefits" position, given it (VaR) provides relevant and useful information the majority of the time. Taleb's point is the "majority of the time" doesn't matter much after insolvency. 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13578/VaR-and-the-Meltdown)

 Topics: [Behavioral Finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/behavioral-finance), [Fischer Black](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/fischer-black), [Risk Metrics](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-metrics), [VaR](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/var), [Risk Management](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-management), [risk in finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/risk-in-finance), [Financial Management](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-management)

## [Behavioral Finance, Spreadsheets, and Bad decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13575/Behavioral-Finance-Spreadsheets-and-Bad-decisions)

 Posted by Peter Orr on Jan 04, 2009

 "The whole secret of mysticism is this: that man can understand everything by the help of what he does not understand. The morbid logician seeks to make everything lucid, and succeeds in making everything mysterious." 

[Read More](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/bid/13575/Behavioral-Finance-Spreadsheets-and-Bad-decisions)

 Topics: [financial economy](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-economy), [Financial Decisions](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-decisions), [Behavioral Finance](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/behavioral-finance), [Financial Technology](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/financial-technology), [Spreadsheets](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/spreadsheets), [Maximum Annual Debt Service (MADS)](https://www.intuitive-analytics.com/blog/topic/maximum-annual-debt-service-mads)

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